The COVID-19 pandemic is continuing around the world and is having an increasing impact on the economy。Many countries have cut their economic growth forecasts and warned of recession risks, while urgently seeking effective countermeasures to reduce the impact on their economies。
Recession warnings abound
Many African countries have slashed their economic growth forecasts for this year due to the increasing impact of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, and major economies in the world have warned of the risk of economic recession。
Vera Songwe, executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, recently said that Africa's economic growth this year may slow from the previous forecast of 3.2 percent down to about 2 percent。Songwe said the drop in commodity prices caused by the pandemic could put financial pressure on countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt and Angola, with African oil exporters expected to lose $65 billion in revenue this year。
Several African central banks have slashed their economic growth forecasts for this year。As one of Africa's largest economies, South Africa's recent economic outlook has not been optimistic。South Africa's central bank said in an article published on its official website on the 6th that South Africa's economy may shrink by 2% to 4% this year due to the impact of the epidemic。In addition, Kenya's economic growth rate was revised from the previous forecast of 6.2 percent fell sharply to 3.4%;Ghana's economy grew at a rate of 6.A further reduction to 2 per cent is not ruled out.5% chance。
French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Monday that France could experience "the worst recession since the end of the Second World War" this year, with the economy shrinking more than in 2009, when the global financial crisis was at its worst。Le Maire said the French economy grew by 2.Negative growth of 2%, the worst year for the economy since 1945。However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the French economy in 2020 is likely to shrink far more than that。
Recent economic data from Germany have also been grim。German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy 6 data show that after adjusting for prices, seasons and working days, German industrial orders in February this year fell 1.4%, an increase of 1.5%。The data showed that German domestic orders increased by 1.7%, foreign orders fell 3.6%, with orders from the euro zone down 5.0%, orders from countries and regions outside the euro area fell 2.7%。Germany's Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy said it expected German industrial orders to still fall in March and April, given the impact of the current outbreak on the global economy。
The outlook for the epidemic in the United States is still unclear, and the future trend of the economy is still full of uncertainties。Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on the 6th that the US economy may contract by 30% in the second quarter of this year, and the unemployment rate is at 12% to 13%。Jpmorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in his annual letter to shareholders on the 6th that although he does not know what the future holds, he expects a severe recession in the US economy and stress in financial markets will be similar to that faced during the 2008 global financial crisis。
Many countries actively responded to the impact of the epidemic
In order to weaken the impact of the epidemic on the economy, the EU has recently discussed a joint response plan。The European Commission on Tuesday proposed the creation of a €100 billion fund to provide loans to member states hit hard by the epidemic in order to safeguard jobs。European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has pledged that the EU will use every penny of its annual budget to help member states fight the pandemic and mitigate its impact on their economies。
At present, Italy, France, Spain and other EU member states have also proposed that European institutions jointly issue "COVID-19 bonds" to raise funds from the market。However, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and other countries have made clear their opposition。According to several media reports, the opposing countries fear that joint borrowing will make them "foot the bill" for countries with unstable fiscal balances, reducing the incentive for those countries to control their deficits。
In addition to the "COVID-19 bonds", there is discussion within the EU of another possible quick-start bailout, namely the use of loans from the European Stability Mechanism。According to foreign media reports, the finance ministers of EU member states met on the 7th to discuss how to build a "safety net" of up to 500 billion euros to jointly deal with the impact of the epidemic。
Helping small businesses is an important part of the response plan in many countries。The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it will support a $349 billion government lending program for small businesses, which began Thursday as part of the government's second largest lending program, AP reported.Part of a $2 trillion aid package。The Fed said it would buy loans that banks make to small businesses as an incentive for them to lend more to them. It would also help increase the amount of money that banks can lend。The Associated Press reported that the Fed's move not only helps small businesses raise money, but also supports the lending operations of large banks。In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy the bonds of states and cities to support them。
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced on Monday that he would launch an economic stimulus package worth 108 trillion yen ($1 trillion)。It would be Japan's biggest stimulus package yet and larger than expected。
In order to mitigate the impact of the epidemic on the economy, central banks in Egypt, Ghana, South Africa and Kenya have recently "collectively" slashed interest rates。At the same time, many countries have introduced a package of economic stimulus measures, including tax cuts and fee reductions, the establishment of special credit, the reduction of some loan interest rates, the extension of repayment deadlines and the exemption of some mobile payment transaction fees。In addition, the African Development Bank also innovates financing instruments to raise funds in the international capital markets。
Stocks rallied on signs of relief
According to data released by Johns Hopkins University, the number of new daily confirmed cases in the United States declined significantly on the 5th, and measures such as "home order" and enterprise shutdown and production have shown signs of effectiveness。Meanwhile, New York, the hardest hit state in the US, saw its first drop in new deaths from the previous day。
The epidemic data released on the 6th show that the overall situation in Europe is still grim, but the epidemic has eased in Spain and Italy, Spain's new daily death is the lowest since March 25, and Italy's severe cases have declined for three consecutive days。
Stock markets around the world have rallied on signs that the outbreak may be easing。
At the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 22,679.99 points, up 7.73%。The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index closed at 2,663.68 points, up 7.03%。The Nasdaq Composite closed at 7,913.24 points, up 7.33%。
All three major European stock indexes rose on the 6th。In London, the FT 100 share average closed at 5,582.39 points, up 3.08%;The CAC40 index in Paris closed at 4,346.14 points, up 4.61%;The DAX in Frankfurt closed at 10,075.17 points, up 5.77%。
Encouraged by the overnight gains in Europe and the United States, the Tokyo stock market opened sharply higher on the 7th. The two major indexes fluctuated wildly throughout the day, and the Nikkei 225 stock average closed at 18,950.18 points, up 2.01%;The Tokyo Stock Exchange index closed at 1403.21 points, up 1.96%。
Many analysts pointed out that the stock market rebound shows that investors are showing initial optimism, hoping to see the epidemic peak and start to decline。However, because there is still a lot of uncertainty about the epidemic, it is difficult for the stock market to gain long-term support。